The big story last week was obviously the declines in software and momentum stocks. The big story for the year has been the bond market and overall move in yields. With the steep decline in rates in the US and the move to negative rates abroad, there has been a lot of confusion in equity positioning and market outlooks.

Today I will walk through the move in bonds, and the specific relationship to software and momentum names, as well as how (and why) I saw a lot of these breakdowns setting up in advance. I will primary focus on the making of, and thinking behind this trade in general, and conclude with some charts on the stocks themselves.

This will not be a larger investment outlook on the space or the stocks themselves but more of a review of how I believe we...

Part 3 of the stock dump series starts here, with today's focus on Nvidia (NVDA) (see part 1, The Micron Dump (NASDAQ:MU) and part 2 The Netflix Dump (NASDAQ:NFLX)).

Again, these articles are designed to help show a multidisciplinary approach to stock trading, investing, and position management. Let's jump right in.

It all started in June when the crypto market cracked and was down over 60%. There were numerous analysts at the time who tried to claim this would not impact the semi space. I took a different view, especially given what we were seeing with the broken trendline in the semiconductor index.

Readers of my work know I like to look for intra-market relationships vs. strict fundamental narratives. In Micron's case it was the auto index that was diverging dramatically, and in Netflix'...

Every now and then there's a trade that really opens up an opportunity for a conversation about fundamentals, price action, and behavioral finance. Turns out Micron (MU) was just that stock in 2018.

I am sure Micron is big favorite here at Seeking Alpha. It has all the parameters I assume the bulk of readers care about. Strong cash flows, demand as far as the eye can see, large cash position, a PE of under 5.

But that didn't stop the stock from dropping 40%. In fact it dropped significantly more than the market, and almost as much as high flyers such as Netflix (NFLX) and Nvidia (NVDA).

Today I want to provide a different view on the stock rather than the traditional deep value, fundamental can't lose bet.

Now, many are going to say the decline is due to China, or DRAM pricing, or any other host...

After calling for major breakout last year in "The Melt Up", I switched to a much more cautious stance as the calendar turned over. There were four major factors coming into the year I was most concerned about. I often see laundry lists of concerns; I have found that somewhere between pointless, redundant, and confusing. The following four however lined up perfectly and were powerfully simple (no particular order).

• Proprietary exhaustion indicator fired in Jan., first time since 2014
• Election Year Seasonality
• Fed Policy
• Trade War

It was these four reasons that I stayed balanced in 2018, with 65% equity exposure on average all year, with much of that long/short. As the year has progressed, the above framework...

In February I wrote an article titled '3% doesn't matter'. This was about two weeks after the market hit its peak with respect to the overall rising rate fear.

There were 3 primary takeaways from my initial article.

• Rising rate concerns had hit a fever pitch
• 'Bad' charts were being passed around everywhere, artificially adding fuel to the fire
• The correct interpretation of yields showed a healthy rotation and/or normalization process

Today I will review the 2016-2018 cycle in yields, including price action, sentiment, and the impact to specific sectors. I will then take another look at where we stand overall on the 10-year treasury yield today.

Price and Sentiment

I've been consistently quoting Gundlach's comments on the value of technical analysis from a few weeks ago, more...