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The Fed Pulls The Punchbowl

Arun S. Chopra CFA CMT 

November 2018

  • Markets come under pressure as the Fed pulls the punchbowl.
  • A look at how to monitor liquidity across equity markets.
  • Why and how I shorted NVIDIA and Netflix near their peaks.

A deeper dive into credit and dollar dynamics.

After calling for major breakout last year in "The Melt Up", I switched to a much more cautious stance as the calendar turned over. There were four major factors coming into the year I was most concerned about. I often see laundry lists of concerns; I have found that somewhere between pointless, redundant, and confusing. The following four however lined up perfectly and were powerfully simple (no particular order).

  • Proprietary exhaustion indicator fired in Jan., first time since 2014
  • Election Year Seasonality
  • Fed Policy
  • Trade War

It was these four reasons that I stayed balanced in 2018, with 65% equity exposure on average all year, with much of that long/short. As the year has progressed, the above framework...

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Macro Correlations

Arun S. Chopra CFA CMT
September 2017
  • Macro correlations are an area of particular interest. The more important ones happen in currencies, interest rates, and commodities.
  • A look at how long-term technical patterns can key us to macro shifts.
  • An in-depth look at the yen's influence in this and past cycles.
  • A look at a current scenario.

Macro correlations have been a particular interest of mine for a long time. This includes common concepts of intermarket analysis to some of the more unique relationships that can come and do often go.

Although many claim that today's managed atmosphere has rendered a lot of these relationships useless, I beg to differ. Markets move in trends, and when large trends change, asset class relationships will change as well, creating durable opportunities. Some are easily explained by economics, others simply are what they are, market phenomenona.

Some are likely happenstance and spurious at best, but by using longer-term technical analysis, some...

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