3% Treasury Yields Still Don't Matter
- In February I argued the rate move was overdone.
- At the time many assumed rates were breaking out.
- How price and sentiment help determine future price action.
In February I wrote an article titled '3% doesn't matter'. This was about two weeks after the market hit its peak with respect to the overall rising rate fear.
There were 3 primary takeaways from my initial article.
- Rising rate concerns had hit a fever pitch
- 'Bad' charts were being passed around everywhere, artificially adding fuel to the fire
- The correct interpretation of yields showed a healthy rotation and/or normalization process
Today I will review the 2016-2018 cycle in yields, including price action, sentiment, and the impact to specific sectors. I will then take another look at where we stand overall on the 10-year treasury yield today.
Price and Sentiment
I've been consistently quoting Gundlach's comments on the value of technical analysis from a few weeks ago, more...
The Bitcoin Bonanza
December 2017
- Bitcoin has had a historic run.
- The time to buy was the breakout of the downtrend in 2015 and close above 300.
- Fear and greed are the two most powerful market forces.
Investing vs. speculating in a boom/bust system.
In all my years in finance, I've never seen anything like this, particularly on the upside. The data says no one has.
Before I get started, let me say I am not a crypto hater. As a former gold bug during 2005-2011, the goal of decentralization is well understood. I know what I need to know about these vehicles and wrote about the boom to technicians this market has provided in my past article Cryptocurrency Charts!
With that said, on to the bonanza...
Chart Watching
Technicals get mixed reviews. On Seeking Alpha, it seems to be a lukewarm sorta deal. Which is great, in the end it's highly subjective. I'd argue so is fundamental valuation, but that is for another day.
Technicals can, however, tell us a lot about emotions. This...