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3% Doesn't Matter

Arun S. Chopra CFA CMT
February 2018
  • Everyone is talking about 3% on Treasury yields as a line in the sand
  • The most common long-term yield chart being passed around is flawed.
  • A look at the correct Treasury yield channels.
One of the most passed around charts in the last 2 months has been the ten year Treasury yield chart. Supposedly we are on the cusp of a major breakout in yields.

Let's first look at how we got here...

Chart Malpractice

The most common chart being published on tens looks like the following 3 (please note they are not my charts; they are simply others I have come across in a variety of mediums). I have purposefully blurred out any contributor information as that isn't my game. This is about trying to be on the right side of the market, period.

Chart 1. The 3% resistance Level

This is the market's new bear 'hope'. 'Rising rates are about to break a 35-year downtrend and 'crash everything'. For that to happen however, the chart has to match the narrative,...

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Macro Correlations

Arun S. Chopra CFA CMT
September 2017
  • Macro correlations are an area of particular interest. The more important ones happen in currencies, interest rates, and commodities.
  • A look at how long-term technical patterns can key us to macro shifts.
  • An in-depth look at the yen's influence in this and past cycles.
  • A look at a current scenario.

Macro correlations have been a particular interest of mine for a long time. This includes common concepts of intermarket analysis to some of the more unique relationships that can come and do often go.

Although many claim that today's managed atmosphere has rendered a lot of these relationships useless, I beg to differ. Markets move in trends, and when large trends change, asset class relationships will change as well, creating durable opportunities. Some are easily explained by economics, others simply are what they are, market phenomenona.

Some are likely happenstance and spurious at best, but by using longer-term technical analysis, some...

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