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3% Treasury Yields Still Don't Matter

Arun S. Chopra CFA CMT
June 2018
  • In February I argued the rate move was overdone.
  • At the time many assumed rates were breaking out.
  • How price and sentiment help determine future price action.
 

In February I wrote an article titled '3% doesn't matter'. This was about two weeks after the market hit its peak with respect to the overall rising rate fear.

There were 3 primary takeaways from my initial article.

  • Rising rate concerns had hit a fever pitch
  • 'Bad' charts were being passed around everywhere, artificially adding fuel to the fire
  • The correct interpretation of yields showed a healthy rotation and/or normalization process

Today I will review the 2016-2018 cycle in yields, including price action, sentiment, and the impact to specific sectors. I will then take another look at where we stand overall on the 10-year treasury yield today.

Price and Sentiment

I've been consistently quoting Gundlach's comments on the value of technical analysis from a few weeks ago, more...

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