Fusion Point Capital

The Twitter Turn

bases fundamental analysis stock market stocks technical analysis trading twitter stock twtr May 31, 2018

Arun S. Chopra CFA CMT

May 2018

After falling 80%, Twitter has more than doubled off the lows.
What can we learn about this entire cycle, from IPO to today.
Bringing fundamental, technical, and behavioral factors together.

After being crushed since going public, Twitter (TWTR) has more than doubled off the lows. I wanted to spend some time looking at the entire cycle as there is much to learn from it in my view of it. Today, I plan to touch on valuation, charts, management, and a little behavioral.

Today's agenda:

TWTR, GPRO, SHAK, OTCPK:HMNY, and the dreaded Doji (Technical)
Financial Gravity (Fundamental/Behavioral)
Stock compensation issues (Management)
The Twitter Turn, bringing it all together

For those who know my work, I've often written about IPOs, pump and dumps, overvaluation, absurd reason, and bubble logic. So that's where I'd naturally like to start.

TWTR IPO

When Twitter came public in 2014, I was skeptical to say the least. Here we go again I thought. 25B?...

Macro Correlations

bonds economics fundamental research interest rates macroeconomics stock market stocks trading yen Sep 04, 2017

Arun S. Chopra CFA CMT
September 2017

Macro correlations are an area of particular interest. The more important ones happen in currencies, interest rates, and commodities.
A look at how long-term technical patterns can key us to macro shifts.
An in-depth look at the yen's influence in this and past cycles.
A look at a current scenario.

Macro correlations have been a particular interest of mine for a long time. This includes common concepts of intermarket analysis to some of the more unique relationships that can come and do often go.

Although many claim that today's managed atmosphere has rendered a lot of these relationships useless, I beg to differ. Markets move in trends, and when large trends change, asset class relationships will change as well, creating durable opportunities. Some are easily explained by economics, others simply are what they are, market phenomenona.

Some are likely happenstance and spurious at best, but by using longer-term technical analysis, some...

The Twitter Turn

TWTR IPO

Macro Correlations

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