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The Twitter Turn

Arun S. Chopra CFA CMT

May 2018

  • After falling 80%, Twitter has more than doubled off the lows.
  • What can we learn about this entire cycle, from IPO to today.
  • Bringing fundamental, technical, and behavioral factors together.

After being crushed since going public, Twitter (TWTR) has more than doubled off the lows. I wanted to spend some time looking at the entire cycle as there is much to learn from it in my view of it. Today, I plan to touch on valuation, charts, management, and a little behavioral.

Today's agenda:

  • TWTR, GPRO, SHAK, OTCPK:HMNY, and the dreaded Doji (Technical)
  • Financial Gravity (Fundamental/Behavioral)
  • Stock compensation issues (Management)
  • The Twitter Turn, bringing it all together

For those who know my work, I've often written about IPOs, pump and dumps, overvaluation, absurd reason, and bubble logic. So that's where I'd naturally like to start.

TWTR IPO

When Twitter came public in 2014, I was skeptical to say the least. Here we go again I thought. 25B?...

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The Melt-Up

Summary
  • The market started melting up in September of last year.
  • Another way to think about this is the market is getting away from the Fed.
  • Many stayed bearish all year long, repeating the same risks that have existed for many years versus objectively looking at price action.

See how Fusion members were in front of the move.

So the market is melting up....

Yes, we have all heard the term in the past 4 months or so. So much so that I saw a lot of perma bears dismiss any possibility of higher prices - instead, they saw further proof of a suckers' rally and an eventual crash.

But nothing could be further from the truth. Just because the search term went trendy is hardly a reason to dismiss it. Especially in the later stages of a bull market.

I've written a lot about the differences between this market and past overall peaks, particularly '08. One of the most important conditions has obviously been monetary policy. This is part of the reason I was able to see the early 2017...

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Macro Correlations

Arun S. Chopra CFA CMT
September 2017
  • Macro correlations are an area of particular interest. The more important ones happen in currencies, interest rates, and commodities.
  • A look at how long-term technical patterns can key us to macro shifts.
  • An in-depth look at the yen's influence in this and past cycles.
  • A look at a current scenario.

Macro correlations have been a particular interest of mine for a long time. This includes common concepts of intermarket analysis to some of the more unique relationships that can come and do often go.

Although many claim that today's managed atmosphere has rendered a lot of these relationships useless, I beg to differ. Markets move in trends, and when large trends change, asset class relationships will change as well, creating durable opportunities. Some are easily explained by economics, others simply are what they are, market phenomenona.

Some are likely happenstance and spurious at best, but by using longer-term technical analysis, some...

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